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Home / Resources / Small Business Contracting
Small Business Contracting

What small contractors can learn from DHS’s AI-related forecast opportunities

Published January 31, 2026

DHS’s forecast is a planning tool for opportunities above $350,000, and one FEMA record shows a full small-business set-aside with AI/ML imagery work.

What small contractors can learn from DHS’s AI-related forecast opportunities editorial illustration
Gov Contract Finder Editorial Team
•2 min read•Updated August 26, 2026•Information as of August 26, 2026

AI-assisted and automatically checked against the linked primary sources.

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What opportunity does DHS’s forecast actually show for small contractors?

The evidence supports a narrower conclusion than a broad claim about “expanding AI use cases.” DHS’s Acquisition Planning Forecast System is designed for businesses, especially small businesses, to review anticipated contract actions over $350,000, and DHS says the forecast is meant to help firms identify procurement opportunities early in the process. DHS also states that forecast entries are for planning only, may be revised or cancelled, do not constitute an invitation for bid or request for proposal, and are not a commitment to buy. Within that forecast, one FEMA record published July 24, 2026 shows a new requirement for Preliminary Damage Assessment aerial imagery services. That record calls for AI and machine-learning algorithms to automatically detect structural damage and debris in post-disaster imagery. It is marked as competition yes, with a full small-business set-aside and a GSA Schedule vehicle, so the cited evidence shows at least one live DHS-related AI/ML opportunity where small businesses are explicitly in scope.
[1][2][3]

Is the DHS forecast itself an award opportunity?

DHS Acquisition Planning Forecast System
No. DHS says the forecast is for planning purposes only, does not constitute a solicitation, and is not a commitment to purchase.
Sources: [2] About This Website | Acquisition Planning Forecast System

  • Use DHS APFS to find anticipated actions above $350,000 and watch for forecast records relevant to your NAICS and small-business status.
  • Treat forecast entries as early market intelligence, not as solicitations or guaranteed awards.
  • The cited FEMA record shows AI/ML work tied to aerial imagery and damage detection, and it is set aside for full small business participation.
  • Check the specific forecast record for competition type, contract vehicle, and estimated solicitation timing before planning capture activity.

Process

  1. 1
    Search APFS for matching opportunities

    Use DHS APFS to review anticipated contract actions over $350,000 and filter by NAICS, contract vehicle, dollar range, and small-business program.

  2. 2
    Read the forecast record carefully

    Check whether the entry is a new requirement, its competition status, whether it is set aside for small business, and whether the schedule is still current.

  3. 3
    Use the record for capture planning

    Plan outreach and teaming only after confirming the forecast details, since DHS says the data may change and is not a solicitation.

Important limitation

The cited sources do not support a claim that DHS has $1.2 billion in AI contracts or that SAM.gov registration by March 2026 is a stated eligibility condition. DHS does say some requirements may later be posted on beta.sam.gov, but the forecast itself is not an offer to bid.

Sources & Citations

1. Home | Acquisition Planning Forecast System [Link ↗](government site)Accessed 8/26/2026
2. About This Website | Acquisition Planning Forecast System [Link ↗](government site)Accessed 8/26/2026
3. Forecast Record | Acquisition Planning Forecast System [Link ↗](government site)Accessed 8/26/2026

Tags

#AI#DHS#government contracts#small business#technology

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Next Step

Review the FEMA forecast record and subscribe to APFS notifications for matching DHS opportunities.